Analytics International Corporation :: AIC :: Arthur D. Barondes

	About Analytics International Corporation (AIC) Analytics International Corporation (AIC) is a veteran-owned, small business (VOSB) incorporated in Virginia. Our business model uses a virtual office approach to access high quality experts to perform risk assessments and address specific engineering issues. This permits us to provide outstanding performers on an “as needed” or task order basis while incurring minimum overhead. Our core competencies are based on a broad spectrum of engineering (mechanical, aeronautical, civil, naval, nuclear, and electrical) and statistical disciplines, and include considerable military (Air Force and Navy) experience. Our work and capabilities are described below and in the attached resumes of our principals.
	Expertise ■ Hazard analysis ■ Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) including aleatory and epistemic uncertainties ■ Risk management ■ Statistical/probabilistic analysis top
	Projects Most of our work has been under the aegis of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) for: ■ Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological (Nuclear Matters) ▪ Joint DoD DOE Study of the Safety and Security of Nuclear Weapons Logistic Transportation, with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) ▪ Special Study of the “Trinity” Issue ■ Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) ▪ Peer review of the Safety Assessment for Explosives Risk (SAFER) program ▪ Developed analytic methods for propagating uncertainties. ■ Department of Energy ▪ Contributed to DOE-STD-3014-96 Aircraft Crash ■ Air Force Safety Center (AFSC) ▪ W78/W87 Minuteman III Weapon System Safety Assessment (WSSA) ▪ Aircraft Crash Dynamics and Structural Responses Workshop ▪ Aircraft Crash Model (ACRAM) for crash location and debris patterns ▪ Risk Comparison: C-141B and C-17A Aircraft in the PNAF Role ▪ Peer review of the B61/W80-1/B83 B-52H WSSA ▪ Peer review of the B61/B83 B-2A WSSA ■ U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) ▪ Peer review of the B61 Dual Capable Aircraft in Europe WSSA ■ Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) ▪Theater Nuclear Forces Improvement Program (TNFIP) top
	Bios of Principals at Analytics International ARTHUR D. BARONDES Education: Scientific/Engineering: M.S., Aeronautical Engineering, University of Michigan B.S., Engineering, U S Military Academy, West Point, NY Air Force Training-with-Industry, Hughes Aircraft Co. Management: Ph.D. (ABD), Business Administration, American University, MBA, Business Administration, George Washington University National War College, Fort McNair, D.C. Industrial College of the Armed Forces, Fort McNair, D.C. Summary: Principal and Senior Scientist for Analytics International Corporation with 15 years of broad-based experience in nuclear weapon safety developing, managing, conducting and reviewing life-cycle probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of entire nuclear weapon systems. Previous experience included 11 years supporting the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) in Europe, by identifying and filling diverse requirements for improving Theater Nuclear Forces (TNF) in Allied Command Europe (ACE) and US European Command (EUCOM). This included: improved survivability of nuclear forces; dispersed basing: and, design of a dispersed command and control system for nuclear forces in Europe, to augment/replace the ACE Status, Control, Alerting and Reporting System (SCARS II). Earlier experience in the Air Force included: Special Assistant to the Air Force Chief of Staff for B-1 [bomber] Matters; command responsibility for a Minuteman III ICBM wing (150 missiles/450 nuclear warheads) and host for a B-52/KC-135 bomb wing, F-106 interceptor squadron and Army ballistic missile defense unit; preparation and presentation of Air Force R&D budgets to congress; identification of intelligence requirements for weapon delivery guidance systems; and, experimental flight test of air-to-air missile systems (4500 flying hours). Experience: 2004-present Principal of Analytics International Corp., currently teamed with SAIC on contract HDTRA1-04-D-0031 for Nuclear Deterrence and MWD Support Program. 2000-2004 Consultant to DDTR (DTRA001-00-C-0131) on matters of nuclear weapon safety, probabilistic risk assessments, DOE coordination, technical exchanges with the Russian Federation, and peer reviews. Principal Investigator for Comparison of C-17A/C-141B in the PNAF special mission role, and the so-called “Special Project.” 1990-2000 Manager for technical support to DTRA (DNA001-93-C-0138) and its predecessors on nuclear weapon safety and weapon system safety assessments. Satisfied DTRA requirements for scientific and technical assistance. Developed and implemented DTRA weapon system safety assessment (WSSA) methodology for the W78/W87 Minuteman III. Supervised five scientists/engineers and six scientific/technical consultants. Oversaw three ongoing nuclear WSSAs: B61-7/W80-1/B83-1 B-52H WSSA; B61-3/-4/-10 Dual Capable Aircraft (DCA) in Europe WSSA; and, B61-7/-11/ B83-1 B-2A WSSA. Conducted DTRA WSSA peer reviews. Responded to ad hoc DTRA requirements for specialized studies, e.g., “Special Study of the ‘Trinity’ Issue,” requested by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and “Expected Frequencies of Prime Nuclear Airlift Force (PNAF) Crashes: Air Force and Commercial Crash Frequencies,” and, “A WSSA for a Russian Nuclear Weapons System.” 1979-1990 Deputy Program Manager for RDA-Europe: a field office supporting the Defense Nuclear Agency in Europe by identifying and satisfying Allied Command Europe (ACE) and U.S. European Command (EUCOM) requirements to improve Theater Nuclear Forces. Worked with NATO, Supreme Headquarters Allied Command Europe (SHAPE), EUCOM, and subordinate commands from Norway to Turkey. Areas of interest included nuclear operations planning; nuclear weapon release procedures; targeting for nuclear weapons; survivable command, communications and nuclear forces; forward basing; and, weapon storage. Selected Publications: Review: DDESB Technical Paper No.14, “Risk-Based Explosives Safety.” DTRA-IR-02-xx, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Alexandria, VA. October 2002. (Principal author, with Richard W. Mensing and Douglas R. Stephens.) “Treatment of Uncertainty in the Estimation of Risk,” DoD Explosives Safety Board Seminar, Atlanta, GA, August 2002. (Co-author with Richard W. Mensing.) Risk Comparison: C-141B and C-17A Aircraft in the PNAF Role, DTRA-IR-01-31 Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Alexandria, VA. June 2001. (With Everett Saverino.) "Electric Field Strength Limits: Vee Curves and Step Curves," draft, March 2000. (Co-author with William S. Kehrer.) Special Study of the “Trinity” Issue, DTRA-TR-99-20, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, May 1999. “Probabilistic Modeling of Safety Risks of Aircraft Crashes into Structures,” Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Volume II, The Amer. Nuclear Society, Park City, UT, September 29 - October 3, 1996. (Co-author with Dr. Richard W. Mensing.) “Risks of Aircraft Crashing into Facilities Containing Hazardous Materials: Integrated Aircraft Crash and Structural Response Model,” Proceedings of the 14^th International System Safety Conference, System Safety Society, Albuquerque, NM, August 12-17, 1996. (Co-author with Dr. Richard W. Mensing.) “Minuteman III Weapon System Safety Assessment (WSSA),” Proceedings of the 14^th International System Safety Conference, System Safety Society, Albuquerque, NM, August 12-17, 1996. Proceedings of the Aircraft Crash Dynamics and Structural Response Workshop, Editor, Logicon RDA, Albuquerque, NM, 1-2 March 1995. W78/W87 Minuteman III Weapon System Safety Assessment, Defense Nuclear Agency, Alexandria, VA, February 1994. CLASSIFIED. (Principal author.) “External Events in Risk Assessments: Lightning Attachment and Aircraft Crashes into Structures,” Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis 1994, Amer. Soc. of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), 1994 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Chicago, IL, November 6-11, 1994. Joint DoD/DOE Study of the Logistic Movement of Nuclear Weapons, Defense Nuclear Agency, Alexandria, VA, 1991. (With others, including DOE.) top
	RICHARD W. MENSING Education: Scientific/Engineering: Ph.D., Statistics, Iowa State University M.S., Statistics, Iowa State University B.S., Mathematics/Physics, Valparaiso University Summary: More than thirty-five years in theoretical and applied statistics and probability in educational and research environments. For more than 17 years, primary focus has been in risk/safety/hazard analysis, including methods, model development and applications. Authority in developing formal expert elicitation techniques for use in the absence of data. Relevant Experience: 2004-present Principal and Risk Statistician for Analytics International Corp. 1998-2005 Consultant: Reviews, designs and develops probability and uncertainty models for estimating risks associated with catastrophic natural and manmade phenomena such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, explosions, and fires. Developed an analytic method for treating uncertainty for the DoD Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) explosives siting model. 1993-1998 Senior Research Specialist II: Under contract to DTRA, designed and developed the methodology for probabilistic modeling of risks associated with aircraft crashes into facilities, in proximity to airfields, containing hazardous materials. The methodology incorporates an integrated approach to quantifying the likelihood and severity of abnormal environments by modeling crashes, stochastic aircraft kinematics and kinetics, and subsequent facility responses. When combined with hazardous material responses, the results are basic inputs into the risk assessment process. The methodology also accommodates uncertainties throughout the process. Under contract to DTRA, developed the model for evaluating the effects of the size of the inactive stockpile on meeting operational requirements. Under DTRA sponsorship, worked with a DOE-led team of analysts to develop the methodology and data for the preparation of DOE Standard 3014-96, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities, October 1996. 1977-1993 Engineer/Statistician: At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), designed and developed the methodology for the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and DOE. The methodology emphasizes modeling uncertainties associated with describing the stochastic behavior of natural phenomena. Developed probabilistic risk assessment methodology for assessing the safety of nuclear explosive assembly, assembly, storage, handling and transport operations at DOE facilities. Developed probabilistic methods used by the NRC and DOE to assess risks of ground and air transport of nuclear materials. Developed magnitude-yield models based on seismic measurements and regression analysis with independent variables subject to errors to estimate yields of underground nuclear explosions. Selected Publications: “An Analytic Approach for Treating Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessments,” Thirty-First DoD Explosives Safety Seminar Proceedings, 24-26 August 2004, San Antonio, TX. “Treatment of Uncertainty in the Estimation of Risk,” Conference Proceedings: 21^st International System Safety Conference, 4-8 August 2003, Ottawa, Canada, System Safety Society, Unionville, VA 22567-0070, pp. 65-75. “Treatment of Uncertainty in the Estimation of Risk,” Thirtieth DoD Explosives Safety Seminar Proceedings, 13-15 August 2002, Atlanta, GA. “Probabilistic Modeling of Safety Risks of Aircraft Crashes into Structures,” Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Volume II, The American Nuclear Society, Park City, UT, September 29-Octiober 3, 1996. (Co-author with Arthur Barondes.) “Risks of Aircraft Crashing into Facilities Containing Hazardous Materials: Integrated Aircraft Crash and Structural Response Model,” Proceedings of the 14^th International System Safety Conference, System Safety Society, Albuquerque, NM, August 12-17, 1996. (Co-author with Arthur Barondes.) “Combination of Experts’ Opinions Based on Decision Theory,” Proceedings of Conference on Reliability and Quality Control, University of Missouri, June 1984. (Co-author with R. F. Barlow and N. G. Smiriga.) Statistics in Research, 3^rd Edition, Iowa State University Press, 1975. (Co-author with B. Ostle.) top
	Contact Information Analytics International Corporation (AIC) P.O. Box 35 Mount Vernon, Virginia 22121-0035 top


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Education:

Review: DDESB Technical Paper No.14, “Risk-Based Explosives Safety.” DTRA-IR-02-xx, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Alexandria, VA. October 2002. (Principal author, with Richard W. Mensing and Douglas R. Stephens.)

Risk Comparison: C-141B and C-17A Aircraft in the PNAF Role, DTRA-IR-01-31 Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Alexandria, VA. June 2001. (With Everett Saverino.)