Education:
Scientific/Engineering:
Ph.D., Statistics, Iowa State University
M.S., Statistics, Iowa State University
B.S., Mathematics/Physics, Valparaiso University
Summary: More than thirty-five years in theoretical and applied statistics and probability in educational and research environments. For more than 17 years, primary focus has been in risk/safety/hazard analysis, including methods, model development and applications. Authority in developing formal expert elicitation techniques for use in the absence of data.
Relevant Experience:
2004-present Principal and Risk Statistician for Analytics International Corp.
1998-2005 Consultant: Reviews, designs and develops probability and uncertainty models for estimating risks associated with catastrophic natural and manmade phenomena such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, explosions, and fires. Developed an analytic method for treating uncertainty for the DoD Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) explosives siting model.
1993-1998 Senior Research Specialist II: Under contract to DTRA, designed and developed the methodology for probabilistic modeling of risks associated with aircraft crashes into facilities, in proximity to airfields, containing hazardous materials. The methodology incorporates an integrated approach to quantifying the likelihood and severity of abnormal environments by modeling crashes, stochastic aircraft kinematics and kinetics, and subsequent facility responses. When combined with hazardous material responses, the results are basic inputs into the risk assessment process. The methodology also accommodates uncertainties throughout the process. Under contract to DTRA, developed the model for evaluating the effects of the size of the inactive stockpile on meeting operational requirements. Under DTRA sponsorship, worked with a DOE-led team of analysts to develop the methodology and data for the preparation of DOE Standard 3014-96, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities, October 1996.
1977-1993 Engineer/Statistician: At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), designed and developed the methodology for the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and DOE. The methodology emphasizes modeling uncertainties associated with describing the stochastic behavior of natural phenomena. Developed probabilistic risk assessment methodology for assessing the safety of nuclear explosive assembly, assembly, storage, handling and transport operations at DOE facilities. Developed probabilistic methods used by the NRC and DOE to assess risks of ground and air transport of nuclear materials. Developed magnitude-yield models based on seismic measurements and regression analysis with independent variables subject to errors to estimate yields of underground nuclear explosions.
Selected Publications:
“An Analytic Approach for Treating Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessments,” Thirty-First DoD Explosives Safety Seminar Proceedings, 24-26 August 2004, San Antonio, TX.
“Treatment of Uncertainty in the Estimation of Risk,” Conference Proceedings: 21st International System Safety Conference, 4-8 August 2003, Ottawa, Canada, System Safety Society, Unionville, VA 22567-0070, pp. 65-75.
“Treatment of Uncertainty in the Estimation of Risk,” Thirtieth DoD Explosives Safety Seminar Proceedings, 13-15 August 2002, Atlanta, GA.
“Probabilistic Modeling of Safety Risks of Aircraft Crashes into Structures,” Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Volume II, The American Nuclear Society, Park City, UT, September 29-Octiober 3, 1996. (Co-author with Arthur Barondes.)
“Risks of Aircraft Crashing into Facilities Containing Hazardous Materials: Integrated Aircraft Crash and Structural Response Model,” Proceedings of the 14th International System Safety Conference, System Safety Society, Albuquerque, NM, August 12-17, 1996. (Co-author with Arthur Barondes.)
“Combination of Experts’ Opinions Based on Decision Theory,” Proceedings of Conference on Reliability and Quality Control, University of Missouri, June 1984. (Co-author with R. F. Barlow and N. G. Smiriga.)
Statistics in Research, 3rd Edition, Iowa State University Press, 1975. (Co-author with B. Ostle.)